Kia ora and G'day
Some analysis for you today:
Given the two year election cycle, and prolonged campaign seaaons, elections are never far from top of mind when it comes to US politics. For the Biden Administration, this is made more acute by the exceedingly narrow margins with which Democrats control both houses of Congress.
Parties that control the White House almost always lose seats in midterm elections. One notable exception is 2002, when Republicans under George W. Bush performed strongly in the ashes of 9/11. More typically, parties in power suffer big losses, as Democrats did under Obama in 2010, and Republicans under Trump in 2018.
The smart money, therefore, would be on Democrats losing their majorities in both chambers. That said, there are a few unusual dynamics at play that could bend the arc of history, namely;
Nobody knows yet the medium- to long-term effect on party favourability of the events of January 6th. Among pundits I respect, there are those like John Heilemann who believe January 6th has had a devastating effect on the GOP brand, describing Republicans as a "zombie party". There is also some anecdotal evidence of an exodus of Republicans, although I need to see considerably more data on an alleged insurrection effect before I believe such a thing meaningfully exists.
The Senate map is somewhat favorable to Democrats, with a preponderance of open and competitive races and blue or purple States.
The seeming likelihood that Trumpian candidates will win key nominations in competitive districts and states where MAGA appeal in primaries could repel general election voters. Think Lara Trump in North Carolina, Marjorie Taylor-Greene in Georgia or even Ivanka in Florida. This could particularly affect high turnout demographics like College-educated suburban voters and seniors, who may be well disposed to Biden if he manages the pandemic successfully.
In a related point, the shifting coalitions within the two parties may mean that the typical drop-off in Democratic turnout doesn't occur to the same extent next year. In fact, the non-college educated Trump supporter fits the profile of a midterm non-voter more than the ascendant Democratic voter.
This is all conjecture of course. Even if these factors play to the Democrats' advantage, it may not be enough to withstand the overwhelming historical trends, which point to a tough election cycle in 2022.
It means the Biden Administration has no room for error. They know it – and they're acting like it.
Many key White House personnel, not least Biden himself, witnessed firsthand the consequences of losing Congress under Obama, and the lesson they learned? Time is by no means on their side.
The focus and determination to achieve tangible results on everything – from the vaccine rollout to Covid relief and infrastructure – stands in stark contrast to the tentative, at times hamfisted, approach that hampered Obama in his first year.
Due to extended but ultimately pointless negotiations over Obamacare, for example, the real-world benefits of the policy were not evident in time for the 2010 election, allowing the GOP to mischaracterise the project as radical socialism. Likewise, the fiscal stimulus package of 2009 was so neutered by compromise it failed to reach voters where they live. Another glaring difference is this: whereas Obama's signature policies in the first couple of years – bailouts, stimulus and healthcare – failed to win popular support, voters overwhelmingly back Biden's efforts to secure Covid relief, invest in clean energy jobs and boost the minimum wage.
There are countless exogenous factors that could upend even the most meticulous political management, but this much seems clear: if they lose the Congress next year, it won't be due to strategic or policy cowardice on the part of Democrats. Whatever happens, they won't leave anything on the paddock.
Another area where the Biden team seem determined not to score any own goals is with respect to party unity. In terms both of policy and personnel, Biden has done more to reach out to progressives durng his opening three weeks than Obama bothered in his first four years. Whether this harmony endures is anyone's guess, but there’s little indication that internal dissension will feature greatly in the next round of primaries – a helpful contrast to the all-out civil war that awaits Republicans.
I've been around way too long to believe Democrats will evade the mid-term curse in 2022, but the current lay of the land at least offers the possibility that they might.