Kia ora and G'day
In a straight party line vote of 50-49 (one Republican was absent), the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed the US Senate on Saturday, giving Biden a huge early legislative victory. There's a lot to like on substance, and much to admire in the way the White House executed the politics around the package.
Above all else, Democrats did a great job of building public support for the bill in an extremely polarised climate. The Plan started popular and only got stronger, with some polls suggesting as many as eight in ten Americans supported it. When you consider that fewer than 80% can even bring themselves to accept the legitimacy of Biden's election, it really is a stupendous achievement to win that sort of approval for anything short of sunshine and puppies.
Republicans could not lay a glove on the Plan, either as a whole or in part. They failed even to arouse any opposition over some boogeyman culture war detail (like funding for gender studies or whatever), typically their (white) bread and (salted) butter.
Before I go on…
For those of you wanting more detail about what the American Rescue Plan contains, please refer to this excellent summary from CNBC.
Where was I?
So, yes, a great day for the Biden White House. It really is an historic accomplishment, one that promises to boost the pandemic-hit US economy in time for the 2022 midterms, giving Dems some hope of bucking historical trends and keeping Congressional majorities.
But events of the past few days and weeks will nonetheless be causing headaches for Chief of Staff Ron Klain and other wiser White House heads.
There's a real possibility the American Rescue Plan will be the first and last major legislative accomplishment of the Biden presidency.
But why, you ask.
In a word; filibuster.
The filibuster, as you probably know, is a parliamentary procedure that effectively prevents any bill with fewer than 60 votes (out of 100) from advancing through the Senate.
(Contrary to popular belief, this is not derived from the US constitution, whose framers considered but then explictly ruled out super-majorities as undemocratic. The accidental origins of the filibuster, and the many ways it has been used to stall progress and advance the segregationist cause, are laid out eloquently here).
The American Rescue Plan passed with only 50 votes because of an even more complex procedural trick known as budget reconciliation. This video does a great job of explaining it.
As Rep. Plaskett points out, the Senate majority only gets one shot at budget reconciliation per year (or per budget cycle, to be precise) and there are severe limitations around what can be included.
To get any other aspect of his agenda through Congress, Biden has two options: somehow find 10 Republican votes; or get Senate Democrats to abolish the filibuster, which, quirkily, they are able to do with a simple majority.
Both paths seem entirely closed off.
The GOP remain lockstep in opposition to anything proposed by Democrats. Even so-called centrists like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski opposed the American Rescue Plan, which, I remind you, had huge and broad public backing, even among Republican voters.
So what chance would you give other, less popular, elements of Biden's agenda like infrastructure, immigration or voting rights? If you said “closer to none than slim*, you're in the ballpark.
What about getting rid of the filibuster?
To do that, Dems need every single vote, and they don't have them. Specifically, West Virginia’s Joe Manchin and Arizona's Kyrsten Sinema are both on record firmly opposing any such move. There may be others, too.
It's infuriating in the extreme because I think Democrats defending the filibuster are misreading the politics – voters couldn't care less – and, in Sinema's case more than Manchin's, they seem motivated less by sincere conviction than cynical (but misguided) calculation.
In short, the filibuster stays and Democratic legislation dies.
This kills the voting rights bill, which could doom Dems in elections
To make things worse, consider this from the Brennan Center:
As of Feb. 19, 2021, legislators in 43 states have carried over, prefiled, or introduced more than 250 bills that would make it harder to vote…
Knowing they can't win without reducing Democratic turnout at elections, Republicans are all-in on a strategy of voter suppression.
Democrats have a plan to stop and even reverse this trend with a comprehensive voting rights bill named after Civil Rights legend, the late John Lewis, RIP (pictured above). Critically, it would require states to use nonpartisan means to redraw boundaries, killing the gerrymander. It would be a total game-changer if it passed – but, with the filibuster in place, it won't. No chance.
That being the case, new state-level voter restrictions and dodgy redistricting could make it next to impossible for Democrats to win a House majority as soon as next year. At that point, the filibuster won't matter because Biden won't even be able get his bills to the House floor. It's a doomsday scenario.
Now that I've cheered you up, I'll leave you to what remains of your weekend.
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Over and out.